Philip Damas, Head of Supply Chain Advisors and CEO of Drewry Shipping Consultants, has closely analyzed the Red Sea crisis. He emphasizes that vessel rerouting lengthens delivery times by at least 10 to 14 days for European destinations. Furthermore, despite the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, shipping lines continue to divert most of their fleet.
Drewry’s estimates show staggering numbers. Approximately 822 vessels out of a worldwide total of 6,100 face disruptions. This situation places up to 10 million TEUs of capacity at risk, representing roughly 30% of the global fleet.
This scenario deeply concerns the market because the diversions coincide with the seasonal cargo peak before Chinese New Year. During this period, available capacity from Asia to Europe is historically tight. Consequently, the crisis has already triggered widespread panic in China regarding equipment and space availability.
Delays also affect carriers heading to the US East Coast, particularly for services to and from South Asia. On this specific route, however, the impact remains limited. Vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope add only six days to their voyage compared to the standard transit.
In contrast, the situation is far more critical for cargo bound from Asia to the European continent. Transit times face severe increases:
• Asia – Northern Europe: 10 additional days at sea (+30%);
• Asia – Mediterranean (Genoa):an astounding 57% increase in sailing time.
Beyond direct delivery delays, the Red Sea diversions will cause a massive domino effect. Experts foresee vessel clustering at destination ports, which will worsen terminal congestion, equipment shortages, and schedule disruptions.
For this reason, these cumulative effects will heavily impact global supply chains. This operational pressure will force shipping lines to restructure their networks, likely adding more vessels to maintain their weekly service commitments.
According to current forecasts, the crisis will peak during the weeks immediately preceding the holiday season. This specific window will prove to be the most challenging period for both shippers and carriers.
Despite these heavy challenges, Drewry highlights one positive outlook for the future. The global maritime industry possesses sufficient container capacity to absorb the longer detour around the Cape of Good Hope. As a result, analysts expect spot freight rates to decrease again shortly after the Chinese New Year celebrations, at least for the US trade lanes.
